Chaos Theory on Financial Forecasting Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

Chaos Theory on Financial Forecasting - Essay Example According to the chaos theorists, chaos has two most important attributes which are both necessary for existence of a chaotic system but not sufficient; one, extreme sensitivity to its initial conditions (Ruelle, 2001:37-9), and two, complicated patterns of nonlinear relationships in it which are not truly random (James, 2003:123-6). The first attribute can be described in a way that as time progresses in a continuous chaotic system, the parameters are so distinctly determined that to reach (or to predict) a certain desired point, knowledge of the initial starting point of system gains extreme importance. A meteorologist named Edward Lorenz, who was trying to predict, first observed this factor weather conditions by using a computer simulation. He noticed that he made simple decimal mistakes that lead extreme distinct results as outcome (Lorenz, 1963:1-25). This was actually a hotspot in chaos theory history, which leaded scientists to think about fallacies made in the past by the us e of word "negligible". The other attribute maintains the properties of relationships among the parameters in a system. Today we know that without complex no linearity, the system will usually be predictable and will not be oversensitive on initial conditions as it depends on non-linear scenarios. Some common misunderstanding among daily use of the word "chaos" mainly appears because of its literal meaning as lack of order. Contrary to this misnomer, in most cases systems that show a pattern of deterministic chaos are quite reared and even predictable on short time scales. Solution paths to chaotic systems are basically deterministic in their nature. Chaos theory generally assumes that, if complex interrelations among the particles of a system are known, then future movement of system is predictable. Regarding this property of chaotic systems, it is now possible or will be possible to find solutions to some problems in science that can't be solved before because of their complex nature. 2. Chaos Theory in Economics Throughout the development of economic theory, from Ancient Greek Philosophers to Today's sophisticated theorists; many different ideas shaped the evolution of economics. Although the assumptions, progress and results acquired are different, almost any theory has the same base point showing economics' as a unitary environment. The unitary term comes from the aspect of economy as being an entity that consists of sub-entities. These units are mainly the consumers and producers taking decisions to survive in the ecosystem of economics. It is an obvious fact that the decisions of particular objects in this system lead the way to the general movement of system. This nature of economics is the key feature that embraces Chaos Theory and economics, in the way that; Chaos Theory tries to explain, how does the behavior of small particles effects each other and the system as a whole and economics as being a social science that struggles with problems

Article analysis 2 Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Analysis 2 - Article Example The results of the study showed a different picture of what is usually assumed concerning marketing. This is shown below: Literature Review From the literature review of the article, we get to know that three factors namely price, product and promotions are used in ensuring that business operate efficiently and marketing campaigns are conducted effectively. The article makes an analysis of price and in fact talks of price being a major factor in terms of ensuring customer numbers are achieved. The article emphasis on the need for a good pricing model since price is responsible for generation of income (Etzel, 2004). Another important factor was promotion in that it determines the way people are informed of a certain brand, service of product. As a result, managers should make use of promotion methods that enhance brand perception such as messages which persuade, inform and linger in minds and hearts of consumers (Daniels, 2009). These factors influence the behaviour of consumers in d ifferent sections of the world and in relation to ChiangMai, the four P’s (Price, Product, Promotion and Place) are important in marketing tourism in the region. The place in this article looks into ChiangMai as a tourist destination with a lot of attractions to offer in terms of nature, culture and the hotel industry (Kandampully, 2007). Hotels in the region rely on the four P’s of marketing to enhance their product offering and thus some 19 hotels decided to conduct a research based on these factors. In this case, questionnaires were deployed for the purpose of conducting the study and these questionnaires were given to managers and hotel guests. Analysis The marketing study was done based on certain variables and the study measured the implementation of marketing practices of hotels and resorts against customer satisfaction levels based on product offering, pricing and promotions. In terms of ownership, the hotels in ChiangMai are either corporate or individually ow ned and this affects that way businesses are marketed. For instance, solely owned hotels have unlimited liability unlike corporations while age of the hotel is also a big factor since many of the hotels in ChiangMai have been operation for a long time. The products offered by these hotels were also surveyed and this included the rooms, types of services, size of rooms and it was found out that most of the hotels offer both sleep and food services (Swarbrooke, 2012). In the process of serving customers, the data analysis revealed that offering food in addition to lodging created better revenues. Apart from offering good products, the services that were offered by ChiangMai’s hotels were superior in the fact that the managers considered services such good hygiene, prompt and courteous service were highly considered in marketing. However, it is the level of implementation the marketing strategies and goals that was important in the process of undertaking this study. In terms of making use of price factor, most hotel managers made use fair pricing systems to attract customers (Sangkaworn, 2008). However, promotion was considered among the high priorities of managers in terms of marketing since hotels made use of friendly gestures and hospitality to attract and retain customers. When the two set of factors were correlated for the purposes of the study, it was found out